the challenge

let's see how well people predicted the future 10 years ago

your task is simple: find the most spectacularly wrong technology prediction made in 2016

we're looking for confident predictions about what technology, the internet, AI, crypto, smartphones, or anything else in the tech world would look like by 2026

requirements

your submission must include:

• the prediction: what exactly was predicted, and who made it?
• the original source: a link to the article, interview, video, social media post, or other evidence showing the prediction was actually made in 2016
• what actually happened: explain how reality turned out differently, using credible sources and data
• why it's interesting: explain what makes this prediction particularly ridiculous, surprising, or historically significant in hindsight

the prediction must have been publicly documented in 2016, and it must already be possible to establish that it was wrong

please prioritize original sources over articles written years later describing supposedly bad predictions

winner selection

the most spectacularly wrong prediction wins!

we'll prioritize:

• how confidently and specifically the prediction was made
• how dramatically reality diverged from it
• the quality of the original sourcing and supporting evidence
• how entertaining, surprising, or historically interesting the discovery is

bonus appreciation for predictions made by people who were considered experts in their fields.

deadline: 11:59pm PST November 3rd

one winner will be nominated by the bounty creator based on the criteria above + feedback from any contributors, payment subject to the normal 48-hour contributor voting process